Last Tuesday’s off-off-year elections were a triumph for the Democrats, a disaster for the Republicans, and a harbinger of even greater Democratic gains and Republican losses in 2026. To maximize their gains, the Democrats must nominate more candidates like those who won the governorships of New Jersey and Virginia, while minimizing the role of “democratic socialists” in their party. To minimize their losses, the GOP must use the next year to revise and reset those policies which the voters find unpopular, lest they lose the House and endure the third impeachment of President Trump.
Political strategists and political scientists for the most part agree that voters in a general election, either statewide or for the presidency, normally prefer to elect moderates over extremists. A right-of-center Republican will normally defeat a radical progressive Democrat, while a left-of-center Democrat will normally defeat a right-wing Republican zealot. Thus, the best strategy for Democrats to follow in 2026 is to nominate candidates similar to Mikie Sherrill and Abigail Spanberger, the successful Democratic nominees for the governorships of New Jersey and Virginia, respectively. Both were experienced members of Congress with solid national-security credentials, both campaigned on the issue of affordability, when not knocking President Trump, and both were able to convince the voters that they were left-of-center ideologically, but not leftist fanatics.
But voters in Democratic primaries are normally more progressive than those who vote only in general elections. Their predominance in the nominating process creates a significant chance that they could conceivably nominate, over the objection of more moderate Democratic leaders, a “democratic socialist” like Zohran Mamdani, New York City’s next mayor. Mamdani won a majority of the vote in a city where only about 10% of the voters are Republican. But while a Mamdani-like candidate probably could not win a general election in most states, progressive Democrats might feel inspired to try to nominate such candidates anyway. At least the GOP should hope so, since a “democratic socialist” running statewide in practically any state in the country would almost certainly lose to a Republican opponent.
But the GOP must do more than hope the Democrats nominate “democratic socialists” for governorships and seats in Congress next year. The 2026 election stakes couldn’t be higher. In almost every off-year election, the party holding the White House loses seats in Congress since voters who dislike the president’s policies are more likely to turn out to vote than the president’s supporters. And given that that the Democrats already hold 214 seats in the House, they need only win a handful more to win a majority, and all that comes with it—the House Speakership, Democratic committee and subcommittee chairmanships, and majorities on all policy-making committees.
Moreover, it is practically certain that should the Democrats win back the House, they will once again impeach President Trump, and while it is probable that the Senate Republicans will again save him from removal, it is not altogether certain that they will do so. Only one Republican voted to remove Trump in 2020, but 7 voted to do so in 2021. Should Trump’s approval ratings, which range from the 30s to the 40s, fall further, Senate Republicans could choose to abandon him as they abandoned President Nixon in 1974.
President Trump and the GOP can best minimize the almost inevitable losses of 2026 by first of all resetting the administration’s economic policies and especially by reversing tariff policy. In 2024 Trump successfully exploited the Biden-era inflation to return to the White House. But his tariffs—sales taxes on imports—contribute to inflation by raising the cost of the goods so taxed while creating a scarcity of imports. Moreover, the willy-nilly way by which Trump arbitrarily and unpredictably imposes, removes, increases, and decreases tariffs creates the sort of uncertainty which discourages investment and new job creation. A restoration of a free-trade regimen will significantly restore consumer confidence, curb inflation, and minimize the sort of public dissatisfaction that will otherwise cost the GOP seats in Congress and might even cost Trump the presidency itself before the official end of his term in 2029.
The President and his Republican supporters should also scale back some of the ICE raids. Trump deserves full credit—and hasn’t gotten enough of it—for sealing the border and practically eliminating illegal immigration into the country. And there’s no doubt his minions have successfully deported or imprisoned many dangerous gang-bangers, drug dealers, and other undesirables. But the public is more skeptical of the value of incarcerating and/or deporting those who have entered America illegally but have otherwise been law-abiding and productive. The administration should emphasize its record in cracking down on the true criminals among those who’ve entered America illegally, while being more tolerant of the rest. After all, their removal may prove too economically disruptive and otherwise appear too inhumane. Of course, should those who entered illegally want to become American citizens, they must leave the country and return legally. Otherwise, by their illegal entry they have flunked the first test of being a good American, I. e., by violating our laws.
Thus the Democrats can maximize their prospective 2026 gains by nominating left-of-center candidates over “democratic socialists.” The Republicans can minimize their probable losses by changing their economic and immigration polices. The winning party next year will be whichever party is more successful in doing what’s necessary for its long-run success.
Malcolm L. Cross has lived in Stephenville since 1987 and taught politics and government at Tarleton for 36 years, retiring in 2023. His political and civic activities include service on the Stephenville City Council (2000-2014) and on the Erath County Republican Executive Committee (1990-2024). He was Mayor pro-tem of Stephenville from 2008 to 2014. He has served on the Board of Directors of the Stephenville
Economic Development Authority since 2018, and as chair of the Erath County Appraisal District’s Appraisal Review Board since 2015. He is also a member of the Stephenville Rotary Club, the Board of Vestry of St. Luke’s Episcopal Church, and the Executive Committee of the Boy Scouts’ Pecan Valley District. Views expressed in this column are his and do not reflect those of The Flash as a whole.
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