In 2027, the U.S. House of Representatives will almost certainly impeach President Trump for the third time. And while Trump easily won acquittal in the Senate and thereby avoided removal from office following his first two impeachments, his chances for a third acquittal may not be as great as he and his supporters would like.
Lost amid the controversies over the seizure of Nicolas Maduro and the killing of Renee Nicole Good have been Trump’s comments on the upcoming 2026 congressional midterm elections.
In one instance, he said that given his many accomplishments to date, “we shouldn’t even have an election.” According to Time, when questioned about this, his press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, explained Trump was “simply joking.” Elaborating, she added that “He was saying ‘we’re doing such a great job…maybe we should just keep rolling.’ But he was speaking facetiously.”
Okay. Whatever. If she says so…
But in a more serious vein, Trump has also said, in talking to GOP lawmakers, “You gotta win the midterms ‘cause, if we don’t win the midterms, it’s just gonna be—I mean they’ll find a reason to impeach me. I’ll get impeached.”
Trump is dead serious. And dead right. Currently, the GOP holds 218 out of 435 seats in the House of Representatives. But the shift of only a few seats from Republican to Democratic control will give the Democrats a House majority—and the power to impeach Trump.
And in midterm elections, the party of the incumbent president almost always loses seats in Congress, and especially in the House of Representatives. Anger being one of the most powerful motivators to go to the polls and “throw the bums out,” voters upset with the incumbent president’s policies are far more likely to show up at the polls to express their anger by voting to oust the president’s followers. Polling indicates that Trump’s overall approval rating is about 40%, and he is winning the approval of only 37% of the voters on the economy and 38% on immigration. Ironically, these were his signature issues in 2024. But today’s public believes, rightly or wrongly, that he hasn’t done enough to boost employment or reduce inflation. And while the public originally supported his efforts to rid America of illegal immigrants guilty of violent crimes, it rejects the targeting of immigrants illegally here but who’ve become productive workers and law-abiding neighbors. Given the GOP’s current razor-thin majority, Democratic control of the House and the impeachment of President Trump are as close to foregone conclusions as one is likely to find in politics.
Of course, impeachment by the House doesn’t necessarily mean removal by the Senate. Twice, the Republican-dominated Senate has voted to acquit Trump of the charges on which the Democratic-controlled House impeached him. And even if the Senate is taken over by the Democrats following the midterms, the GOP will probably retain enough Senate seats to block Trump’s removal—assuming enough Republican Senators want to retain him.
But this assumption may not hold true in 2027. When Bill Clinton was impeached in 1998, no Democratic Senator voted to remove him. They may have been motivated partly by party loyalty, as well as by a belief that Clinton’s offense for which he was impeached—lying under oath while giving a deposition in a civil case concerning alleged sexual harassment—was not serious enough to justify his removal from office. But also of importance was Clinton’s popularity with polled voters who approved of his economic management.
However, in Trump’s case, Republican senators may be more likely to abandon him. After all, in 2020, one GOP senator actually voted with Democratic senators for his removal. This was especially noteworthy since no Democratic senators had voted to remove either Democrat Andrew Johnson in 1868 or Democrat Bill Clinton in 1999. And 7 senators voted for Trump’s conviction in 2021. So his poor and sinking public approval ratings may lead enough Republican senators to support his removal, partly because they disapprove of his conduct in office, as well as in the belief that he will lack the popularity to remain a threat to their political future.
Of course, the midterms are still months away, and the new Congress they produce, and which will decide Trump’s fate, won’t take office for almost a year. Much can happen between now and then, including actions Trump himself may take to effect, for better or worse, the outcome of any impeachment procedures. In a future column, I’ll review what Trump may be able to do to help—or hurt—himself, and the country as well.
Malcolm L. Cross has lived in Stephenville since 1987 and taught politics and government at Tarleton for 36 years, retiring in 2023. His political and civic activities include service on the Stephenville City Council (2000-2014) and on the Erath County Republican Executive Committee (1990-2024). He was Mayor pro-tem of Stephenville from 2008 to 2014. He has served on the Board of Directors of the Stephenville
Economic Development Authority since 2018, and as chair of the Erath County Appraisal District’s Appraisal Review Board since 2015. He is also a member of the Stephenville Rotary Club, the Board of Vestry of St. Luke’s Episcopal Church, and the Executive Committee of the Boy Scouts’ Pecan Valley District. Views expressed in this column are his and do not reflect those of The Flash as a whole.
Be the first to comment