The voters in last week’s Texas primary elections have given the Democrats the greatest opportunity in decades to win the U. S. Senate seat currently held by Republican John Cornyn. But Republican voters, by sending both Senator Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton into a runoff, are faced with a dilemma. Senator Cornyn can probably more easily defeat Democratic Senate nominee James Talerico than can Attorney General Paxton, yet Paxton may be more likely to win the runoff over Cornyn. If Republicans want to retain Cornyn’s Senate seat and increase their chances to retain control over the Senate and the power that comes with that control, they should vote for Cornyn over Paxton anyway.
When voting for U.S. senators and representatives, many voters may say they vote for the person, not the party. But in reality, to vote for a senator or representative is to vote for the candidate’s party, whether Democratic or Republican, to control the chamber and acquire all the power that that entails. Whichever party holds a majority of seats in a given chamber get’s the chamber’s main leadership position (Senate majority leader or House Speaker), the chairmanships of all the chamber’s committees and subcommittees, and majorities on all committees and subcommittees (except the Ethics Committees, on which there must always be an equal number of Republicans and Democrats regardless of which party is in the majority). The majority party in each chamber can determine whether the President can win that chamber’s approval of his legislative proposals. And the majority party in the Senate will determine whether to confirm or reject the President’s appointees to executive positions or judgeships. (Recall how Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell blocked President Obama from making a Supreme Court appointment while letting President Trump make three appointments.) Therefore, both the candidate and the candidate’s party are of crucial importance.
Any Democrat seeking statewide elective office in Texas faces an uphill battle. No Democrat has won a statewide election to any office—executive, legislative, or judicial—since 1994. And no Democrat has been elected to the U. S. Senate since 1988, when Senator Lloyd Bentsen won his last term.
But James Talerico is widely believed to have a good chance to break the Democrats’ losing streak. A state representative and Presbyterian seminarian, he has a more moderate style than that of his main opponent in the primary, Congresswoman Jasmine Crocket. Some critics of Talerico claim there are no significant philosophical differences between Talerico and the outspokenly progressive Crocket. Nonetheless, Talerico may play better with more moderate Democrats, independents, and even some moderate non-MAGA Republicans than Crocket might have done. His election will increase the chances that the Democrats will win control of the Senate next year.
The Republicans, however, must choose their nominee in the runoff. Both Cornyn and Paxton have strengths and weaknesses.
The strongest argument to be made in favor of John Cornyn’s renomination is that he is more likely than Ken Paxton to be able to defeat James Talerico in the general election, and thereby increase the probability that the Senate will remain under Republican control. In a race with Talerico Cornyn would have the typical advantages of the incumbent—more name recognition, a longer record of achievement, and far more money (many donors typically give more money to incumbents than to challengers seeking to oust them since incumbents are more likely to win anyway and many donors like to be on the winning side; by giving more to incumbents they help create self-fulfilling prophecies, even if they also give some money to challengers to hedge their bets.
But Cornyn is less popular than Paxton among the Republicans most likely to vote in the upcoming runoff: Ideologically motivated and active MAGA Republicans. Although Cornyn says he’s voted to support President Trump’s policy proposals 99% of the time, many MAGA Republicans consider him to be a RINO (Republican In Name Only). After all, following the Uvalde mass murders, Cornyn expressed support for mild gun control measures. And he also said prior to 2024 that Trump was too old to be considered again for the presidency, and that he should retire from presidential politics to help make way for a new generation of presidential candidates. Cornyn’s moderate temperament and flashes of independent thought may make him more appealing to general election voters than Paxton. But MAGA Republicans much prefer Paxton, who has always been more outspoken in favor of Trump, over Cornyn anyway.
Yet should Republican voters choose Paxton in the runoff, he’ll carry into the general election all the baggage Cornyn has been highlighting in his campaign commercials to date, especially Paxton’s legal, ethical, and marital problems. Talerico will attack him relentlessly in ways which could not be used against Cornyn. Cornyn’s lack of the sort of baggage with which Paxton is burdened is yet another reason to believe that Cornyn will be the stronger general election candidate should he survive the runoff, and that he’ll be able to help the GOP hold the Senate.
So, however much MAGA Republicans might prefer Paxton over Cornyn, if they want the GOP to keep the Senate, they should swallow their doubts about Cornyn and support him anyway. The Democrats have quite wisely chosen their best available candidate to win Texas’s Senate seat and possibly the Senate itself. The Republicans should choose their best candidate, too.
Malcolm L. Cross has lived in Stephenville since 1987 and taught politics and government at Tarleton for 36 years, retiring in 2023. His political and civic activities include service on the Stephenville City Council (2000-2014) and on the Erath County Republican Executive Committee (1990-2024). He was Mayor pro-tem of Stephenville from 2008 to 2014. He has served on the Board of Directors of the Stephenville
Economic Development Authority since 2018, and as chair of the Erath County Appraisal District’s Appraisal Review Board since 2015. He is also a member of the Stephenville Rotary Club, the Board of Vestry of St. Luke’s Episcopal Church, and the Executive Committee of the Boy Scouts’ Pecan Valley District. Views expressed in this column are his and do not reflect those of The Flash as a whole.
you might want to do some more research on Talarico..you obviously dont know him. His view are as far left as you can get and will not play well statewide…