Next year’s midterm elections may well produce Democratic victories nationwide. But Representative Jasmine Crockett’s decision to run for U.S. Senator from Texas increases the chances that the Republicans will continue to hold the seat to be contested, which they first won more than 60 years ago.
The Democrats haven’t won a statewide election in Texas since 1994. They haven’t elected a U.S. Senator since 1988. The seat currently held by John Cornyn, currently running for re-election, has been held continuously by Republicans since John Tower first won it in a 1961 special election to replace Lyndon Johnson, who had to resign the seat to become Vice President.
But notwithstanding the GOP’s strength in Texas, there is a real possibility that the Democrats could take the seat next fall. The Republican chances of extending their hold on the seat have been weakened by several factors:
First, voter dissatisfaction with inflation and the economy. Polling results presented by the Wall Street Journal indicate that 90% of all voters are “extremely concerned” or at least “very concerned” about inflation and high prices. This includes 94% of Democrats, 89% of independents, and even 87% of Republicans. These figures spell trouble for the GOP nationwide since voters concerned about the state of the economy typically blame the incumbent President and vote against his party’s nominees for senator and representative.
Second, the bruising, ugly primary for the GOP Senate nomination in Texas will weaken the party and its nominee, whoever he may be. The primary is causing all three candidates to burn through cash, meaning there will be less money to finance the general election campaign of the primary (or almost inevitable runoff) winner.
Third, polls and known voter behavior patterns show Ken Paxton as the most likely candidate to emerge from the wreckage the primary and runoff will produce. The current polls show Paxton with 29% of the vote, with Cornyn and Wesley Hunt tied at 24%. Paxton is almost certain to be in the runoff. He will have, in both the primary and the runoff, the advantage of having the loyalty of the voters most likely to show up at the polls—hard-core committed Republican activists. Cornyn has emphasized that he has supported President Trump 99% of the time, but grassroots activists nonetheless distrust him: They see him as too much a part of the GOP establishment, and they can’t forgive him for expressing mild support for possible gun control measures following the Uvalde mass shooting.
But at the same time, Paxton may be the weakest GOP candidate for the general election, given his hard-right position on the issues as well as widespread questions concerning his personal and professional ethics—questions Cornyn is doing his best to emphasize in his anti-Paxton ads. Paxton may well be less able than Cornyn to broaden his appeal in a general election campaign beyond his hardcore GOP base.
Enter Jasmine Crockett.
Polling currently shows Crockett with a 51% to 43% lead over her strongest competitor, state representative James Talarico, and this delights the GOP no end. Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick, for example, has called Crockett the gift that keeps on giving. U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson said, “I’m absolutely delighted that Jasmine Crockett is running for Senate in Texas. I think it’s one of the greatest things that’s happened in the Republican Party in a long, long time. She is the face of the Democratic Party, she and Mamdani. Good luck with that.”
And therein, Johnson is anticipating the strategy the Texas GOP will follow, regardless of its own nominee. No doubt the GOP will portray her as a hard-left radical just as repellent to mainstream general election voters as a right-wing radical might be. And while Crockett lacks the ethical baggage Paxton is bringing to the campaign, she nonetheless lacks any discernible potential to win over any voters who might otherwise support a moderate left-of-center candidate over the hard-right Paxton. To the contrary, her voting record, as well as her frequently intemperate remarks—calling Governor Abbot “Hot Wheels,” for example—will supply GOP strategists with plenty of material with which to fashion a hard-left image which will make her defeat easier than attempts at Colin Allred or James Talarico might have been.
Renomination of John Cornyn is the best way to hold the Senate seat for the GOP, because he seems to have the greatest crossover appeal to moderate independents and Democrats and is most likely to win at least some of their votes in the general election. But should Jasmine Crockett, as expected, win the Democratic nomination, then after the GOP is finished defining her, she—or the GOP’s image of her—will scare enough voters to help the Republican senate nominee win the election, whoever he may be.
Malcolm L. Cross has lived in Stephenville since 1987 and taught politics and government at Tarleton for 36 years, retiring in 2023. His political and civic activities include service on the Stephenville City Council (2000-2014) and on the Erath County Republican Executive Committee (1990-2024). He was Mayor pro-tem of Stephenville from 2008 to 2014. He has served on the Board of Directors of the Stephenville
Economic Development Authority since 2018, and as chair of the Erath County Appraisal District’s Appraisal Review Board since 2015. He is also a member of the Stephenville Rotary Club, the Board of Vestry of St. Luke’s Episcopal Church, and the Executive Committee of the Boy Scouts’ Pecan Valley District. Views expressed in this column are his and do not reflect those of The Flash as a whole.
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