According to current public opinion polls tracking the Talarico-Paxton battle for the Senate, James Talarico is showing abnormally great strength for a Democrat, while Ken Paxton is showing abnormally great weakness for a Republican. Reasons for these anomalies may include the effectiveness of Senator John Cornyn’s campaign against Paxton in the primary and the ineffectiveness of Paxton’s charges of extremism against Talarico, the possibility that Paxton himself may be seen as an extremist, and public disapproval of President Trump, with whom Paxton is so closely identified. With the election still three months away, much can happen to either strengthen Talarico or help Paxton overcome Talarico’s lead. But for the time being, the Senate race is looking more like Talarico’s race to lose.
Current public opinion polls are showing what was once thought to be unthinkable: A Democrat ahead of a Republican in a statewide race in a state which hasn’t elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994 or to the U. S. Senate since 1988. Yet a recent poll shown on the local DFW ABC’s network affiliate offered the following results.
- Talarico is ahead of Paxton 47% to 45%.
- 97% of Democrats intend to vote for Talarico, but only 85% of Republicans support Paxton.
- Independents favor Talarico over Paxton 63% to 23%.
It should be noted that the first result—Talarico’s 2-point lead over Paxton—is within the poll’s margin of error. Moreover, the reported lead is obviously small enough for Paxton to possibly overcome it between now and Election Day. Nonetheless, this poll’s results are consistent with those of other recent polls surveyed by the Texas Tribune, which all show Talarico ahead of Paxton, albeit by small margins. No recent poll gives Paxton any sort of lead at all.
So what accounts for Talarico’s current apparent lead?
One factor may be the effectiveness of Senator Cornyn’s relentless attacks on “Crooked Ken” during the primaries. Obviously, they failed to win renomination for Cornyn in the primary and runoff elections, which attract voters who prize ideological purity over ethical conduct. But general election voters normally prefer ethical over allegedly unethical candidates. Everyone, and not just prospective primary and runoff voters, saw and no doubt remember Cornyn’s ads. If Cornyn failed to defeat Paxton in the primary, he nevertheless may well have softened up Paxton for Talarico in the general election, as reflected by the overwhelming support for Talarico among independents.
Another factor may be the failure of Paxton so far to convince voters of Talarico’s alleged extremism on social issues. Talarico has walked back some of his views. For example, while he voted against banning sex change operations for children, he has explained he did so only to protect the ability of children with anomalous chromosomal arrangements (XXY, XYY) to get medical treatment for their unusual conditions, and that he does, in fact, oppose sex change operations for the over 98% of children who fall into the conventional XX and XY groupings. And while Talarico apparently still supports allowing boys claiming to be girls to play on girls’ athletic teams in public schools, he does not come close to expressing support for policies such as taxpayer-funded sex change operations for convicted criminals—an issue which hurt Kamala Harris in 2024. Of course, Paxton could still try to raise the issue anew, but doing so might alienate more independent voters, whose support he will need come November.
On the other hand, Paxton himself may have an extremism problem. He has campaigned as an uncompromising hardcore conservative and MAGA supporter of President Trump, which, of course, won him the senatorial nomination in the primary. But such inflexibility may limit his ability to expand his base and win more moderate Republican and independent voters in the general election. Moreover, as President Trump’s approval ratings remain in the mid 30s, Paxton, by virtue of his close identification with Trump, will suffer accordingly.
With Talarico holding only a slight lead so far, with Paxton within striking distance of Talarico, and with 3 more months to go before Election Day, anything could happen to either help Talarico open up a wider lead or allow Paxton to overcome Talarico’s lead and open up his own lead. For example, resumption of more intense fighting with Iran may drive up inflation in general and the price of oil in particular, to the detriment of Paxton as one of Trump’s most loyal supporters. Conversely, settling the war on terms favorable to the United States might temper inflation, reduce the cost of oil, bolster President Trump’s approval ratings, and thereby help Republicans in general and Paxton in particular. Or the renewal of the issue of the role of the transgendered in women’s sports—sparked, perhaps, by the emergence of another star WNBA player speaking out in favor of limiting participation to biological women alone—may refocus attention on Talarico’s views on the subject, to his detriment. Anything is possible. Nothing is certain. But as long as the polls consistently give Democrat Talarico the lead, however small, especially in an overwhelmingly Republican state, the election remains Talarico’s to lose.
Malcolm L. Cross has lived in Stephenville since 1987 and taught politics and government at Tarleton for 36 years, retiring in 2023. His political and civic activities include service on the Stephenville City Council (2000-2014) and on the Erath County Republican Executive Committee (1990-2024). He was Mayor pro-tem of Stephenville from 2008 to 2014. He has served on the Board of Directors of the Stephenville Economic Development Authority since 2018, and as chair of the Erath County Appraisal District’s Appraisal Review Board since 2015. He is also a member of the Stephenville Rotary Club, the Board of Vestry of St. Luke’s Episcopal Church, and the Executive Committee of the Boy Scouts’ Pecan Valley District. Views expressed in this column are his and do not reflect those of The Flash as a whole.
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