What does President Trump want from the Republican congressional primaries—GOP nominees more likely to defeat their Democratic opponents in November? Or nominees more loyal to him personally? He needs the former, but at times he seems more eager to promote the latter at the risk of the GOP’s electoral fortunes. Both Trump and the GOP electorate may come to regret his interventions in the GOP primaries, as the outcome of 2021 and 2022 Senate races, as well as the upcoming contest between Ken Paxton and James Talarico for John Cornyn’s soon-to-be-vacated Senate seat, may demonstrate.
Given historical election trends and records, President Trump should worry that the GOP may lose Congress in the fall elections. The signs of coming GOP defeats are apparent: His public approval ratings are in the mid-thirties, being driven down by an unpopular war and soaring gasoline prices, among other factors. In similar past situations, the voters have taken out their anger at the incumbent president by voting to oust his party’s members in Congress. Such has been the pattern in all but three of the off-year congressional elections since 1900.
And the stakes have never been greater. As I’ve written before, should the GOP lose the House of Representatives, Trump will once again be impeached. And while there’s no realistic danger that the Senate will ever vote to convict and remove Trump, loss of GOP control of the Senate will practically guarantee that no Trump-nominated candidate for a judgeship—especially a Supreme Court nominee—will ever be confirmed. So one would assume that Trump would want GOP voters to nominate the strongest possible vote-getters for senator or representative. But such has frequently not been the case, as the outcomes of some of the 2021 and 2022 Senate elections demonstrate.
In January of 2021, Georgia had to conduct special elections to re-elect two Republican senators, one whose term had expired and one who had been appointed to fill a vacancy. Both had received the most votes in their respective 2020 elections, but neither had received a majority of the vote. So under Georgia’s election law, runoffs had to be held. Unfortunately for the two incumbent Republicans, Trump’s bitter and relentless attacks on the Georgia GOP and Georgia’s Republican Governor and Secretary of State for failing to “find” enough votes to allow Trump to carry the state in 2020 helped discourage enough Republicans from voting to allow the Democrats to defeat the Republicans. Result: The GOP lost two seats in the Senate, giving it a Democratic majority. To make matters worse, Trump-backed Senate candidates lost winnable races in Georgia, Arizona, and Pennsylvania in 2022, thereby keeping the GOP in the minority in the Senate until 2025. Without Trump’s intervention, the Senate could have had 4 more senators earlier and would not have been relegated to minority status during the Biden administration.
Trump’s apparent tendency to value personal loyalty above electability won’t automatically lead to more Republican losses in 2026. There’s little doubt that the new Republican congressional nominee who defeated Representative Massie in the recent Kentucky GOP primary will hold the seat for the GOP this fall. And whoever the GOP nominates in the upcoming Louisiana runoff to replace Senator Cassidy will almost certainly win his Senate seat, too. But the rejection of Cornyn by Paxton increases the possibility of a Talarico victory in Texas—the last thing Trump should want.
To be sure, political analysts like Charlie Cook and Larry Sabato still give Paxton a better-than-even chance of winning. After all, no Democrat has won any statewide elective office in Texas since 1994, and no Democrat has won one of Texas’s U. S. Senate seats since 1988. But while analysts think Paxton can win, they also believe his chances of doing so are less than Cornyn’s, had Cornyn won the primary. Unlike Cornyn, Paxton has several weaknesses which must be overcome, including his legal and marital problems, his hyperpartisanship, and his limited fundraising ability.
Paxton’s most obvious problem going into the fall election is the excessive political baggage he must carry, stemming from his various indictments, his impeachment, and his marital problems. Obviously, these issues meant little to his MAGA Republican supporters in the primary, despite Cornyn’s relentless attacks. But non-MAGA Republicans and independents may take them more seriously. Talarico has already begun to exploit these matters, branding Paxton as America’s most corrupt politician today.
Paxton’s hyper partisanship and unquestioned loyalty to Trump made him far more appealing to Texas’s MAGA Republican voters. But these same traits, which helped him win both Trump’s endorsement and an overwhelming and true landslide victory in the runoff, may limit his ability to win the support of more moderate Republican and independent voters. This problem also plagued GOP Senate candidates in 2022. Cornyn’s moderate temperament and his occasional excursions into bipartisanship might well have made him better able to appeal to the wider range of non-MAGA Republicans and independents whose votes are necessary for a GOP victory.
Yet another problem Paxton may face is greater difficulty in raising funds. Cornyn easily raised and spent almost 4 times as much money (about $30 million) as Paxton did (about $8 million). Obviously, Cornyn’s fundraising advantage did him no good in the runoff. But given Talarico’s fundraising prowess (more than $40 million to date), Paxton will have to raise far more money for the general election, and GOP donors may have to divert more funds to him from planned expenditures for other candidates, which may thereby put their election or re-election chances in jeopardy.
Paxton’s defeat in November is by no means certain. A victory in Iran, coupled with falling gas prices, may restore some of Trump’s popularity and hence increase Paxton’s chances for success. And no doubt Talarico’s previously expressed progressive views on abortion, transgenderism, and immigration, as well as friction with Black Democratic leaders such as Jasmine Crockett and Colin Allred, will work to Paxton’s advantage too. But had Trump accepted Cornyn’s record of supporting him 99% of the time as a sign of sufficient loyalty, and thus backed Cornyn and helped him win renomination, he would not have to be so concerned with the uncertainties surrounding Paxton’s candidacy.
Malcolm L. Cross has lived in Stephenville since 1987 and taught politics and government at Tarleton for 36 years, retiring in 2023. His political and civic activities include service on the Stephenville City Council (2000-2014) and on the Erath County Republican Executive Committee (1990-2024). He was Mayor pro-tem of Stephenville from 2008 to 2014. He has served on the Board of Directors of the Stephenville Economic Development Authority since 2018, and as chair of the Erath County Appraisal District’s Appraisal Review Board since 2015. He is also a member of the Stephenville Rotary Club, the Board of Vestry of St. Luke’s Episcopal Church, and the Executive Committee of the Boy Scouts’ Pecan Valley District. Views expressed in this column are his and do not reflect those of The Flash as a whole.
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