The 2026 midterm election campaigns have entered the final stretch, with Democrats favored to win the House of Representatives while nearing striking distance of taking the Senate as well. To maximize their advantage, they should keep emphasizing the economy. Republicans can minimize Democrats’ success with reliance on redistricting, linking Democrats to Democratic Socialism, and distancing themselves from President Trump. Although Trump wants the election to be about him (and to a certain extent it is), he can best help Republicans with financial aid to their campaigns from his own PACs, while otherwise keeping as low a profile as possible.
By a long if informal tradition, Labor Day is considered the unofficial start of the fall general election campaigns. Most of each party’s candidates have been nominated, the public is beginning to pay more attention to the candidates and their campaigns, and the general election is less than two months away. We’ve entered the final stretch, when the candidates will have their last chances to make their cases for themselves and against their opponents.
So what should the candidates of each party emphasize?
As of this writing, the Democrats are favored to win more seats in Congress than the Republicans, capturing the House of Representatives and possibly seats in the Senate as well.
And history is on the side of the Democrats. In the past century, the party of the incumbent President has lost seats in all but three of the midterm elections. The President’s party has only been able to make gains in 1934, when the voters endorsed the implementation of President Roosevelt’s New Deal; 1998, when the voters endorsed President Clinton’s economic management and condemned the GOP’s preparations to impeach him; and 2002, when the voters rewarded President Bush’s handling of 9/11. In every other midterm election, more voters who disapproved of the incumbent President’s policies went to the polls than did the President’s supporters, and thereby voted to decrease the seats held by his party.
And presidents and their parties are especially vulnerable on economic issues. In every election since the presidential election of 1840, whenever the public disapproved of the direction the economy seemed headed, they voted out the President in presidential election years, and members of his party in the midterms. Fairly or not, the President and his party are ALWAYS punished by the voters for being in office when the voters think the economy is going sour.
As of this Labor Day weekend, public opinion on the economy is especially critical of President Trump. Pew Research reports that only about 24% of the public believe that the economy is ‘excellent” or at least “good,” but 41% rate economic conditions as only fair, while 35% say conditions are poor. The percentage of Americans who think the economy will improve has fallen from 31% in January to 23% today. About 60% blame President Trump and his policies for today’s bleak economic picture. For Democrats, the best course of action is clear: Keep emphasizing the economy, while blaming rising inflation and declining affordability on Trump’s tariffs and the war on Iran, at least where the price of gasoline—now, on average over $4.00 a gallon at the pump—is concerned.
There is little Republicans can currently say or do to refute Democratic critiques of the Trump economy, but several factors may diminish their losses this fall anyway. For example, it’s possible (but not certain) that redistricting, conducted to increase the number of GOP-leaning seats in the House of Representatives, will help keep Republican losses at a minimum. But Republicans should keep in mind that to create more potentially Republican seats, district boundary lines had to be withdrawn to decrease the number of Republicans in safe GOP districts and transfer them to other districts. This had the overall effect of reducing the GOP margins in many districts where redistricting took place, thereby increasing Democratic chances of capture. Moreover, GOP redistricting efforts provoked Democratic redistricting efforts as well. The GOP may not have helped itself as much as it wanted after all. We’ll learn more on Election Day.
Another potential GOP gambit is to link Democrats to the Democratic Socialist movement. Indeed, the rise of Democratic Socialism within the Democratic Party may be one of the most helpful developments for the GOP this year. The online platform of the Democratic Socialists of America is a veritable goldmine of policy proposals which Republicans can try to link to Democrats with potentially great effect. For example, the DSA platform advocates:
- The abolition of the Senate and the election of executives and judges by the House of Representatives;
- The abolition of the armed forces, prisons, and police forces;
- The extension of the right to vote to all adults resident in the United States, whether they are citizens, aliens legally here, or illegal aliens;
- Etc., etc,, etc.
While not all Democrats believe in the principles of the DSA, many seem afraid to criticize Democratic Socialism and its adherents, preferring to prattle on about the need to keep the Democratic Party a “big tent.” So Republicans can have some fun putting Democrats on the spot by asking them which ideas they accept, and which they reject. The more radical they make Democrats look, the less likely general election voters will voter Democratic. However, in doing so, GOP candidates must be prepared to explain why the GOP has not more thoroughly rid itself of right wing crackpots such as Nick Fuentes, Candace Owens, their respective followers, and other noxious sickos purveying white supremacy, antisemitism, neo-Nazism, Holocaust denial, and other right-wing garbage.
And what of President Trump? He has explicitly said he wants the 2026 midterms to be a referendum on him, and he’s organized and will be attending a midterm convention of sorts this week in the Metroplex to advance that theme. There’s some logic to this move. It’s possible that in making himself the campaign’s central issue he can galvanize enough MAGA supporters to go to the polls in greater numbers than currently expected, and thereby reduce Democratic victories.
But GOP strategist Karl Rove cautions against it. Current polls show Trump’s public approval ratings to be underwater. Fewer than 40% of the voters approve his job performance, while at least 55% and up to 58% disapprove. Rove raises the possibility that Trump, by making himself the campaign’s main issue, will antagonize more voters than he wins over to the GOP. Rove advises Republicans, to the extent possible, to distance themselves from Trump and, in fact, many are declining to attend the GOP rally/convention later this week.
On the other hand, says Rove and others, Trump should begin to generously dole out more financial aid to GOP candidates’ campaigns. After all, he controls PACS with at least $400,000,000 and possibly as much as $1 billion. All that money could make a big difference in the campaigns of many Republicans, including Ken Paxton, who not trails James Talarico not only in the polls but in the accumulation and expenditure of campaign funds as well.
All in all, the outcome of the 2026 midterm elections should benefit the Democrats. But in politics, anything is possible. While the possibility that the GOP will somehow triumph is too remote to be taken seriously, its strategists and candidates may be able to mitigate and reduce the strength of the oncoming Democratic Blue Wave. And both parties may learn lessons which will benefit them as they gear up for the elections of 2028. For months, and possibly for years, both Republican and Democratic potential presidential candidates and candidates for other offices as well have been jockeying for position, recruiting strategists and other campaign aides, and planning their fundraising. The day after the 2026 midterm elections, the public phase of the 2028 elections for President and Congress will begin.
Malcolm L. Cross has lived in Stephenville since 1987 and taught politics and government at Tarleton for 36 years, retiring in 2023. His political and civic activities include service on the Stephenville City Council (2000-2014) and on the Erath County Republican Executive Committee (1990-2024). He was Mayor pro-tem of Stephenville from 2008 to 2014. He has served on the Board of Directors of the Stephenville Economic Development Authority since 2018, and as chair of the Erath County Appraisal District’s Appraisal Review Board since 2015. He is also a member of the Stephenville Rotary Club, the Board of Vestry of St. Luke’s Episcopal Church, and the Executive Committee of the Boy Scouts’ Pecan Valley District. Views expressed in this column are his and do not reflect those of The Flash as a whole.
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