One of the results of President Trump’s decision to back Russia over Ukraine in the ongoing war is to weaken NATO and thereby begin the process of resurrecting America’s pre-World War 2 policy of isolationism. He is also reviving other policies such as attempts to more thoroughly dominate Latin American politics while giving Russia and China freer rein to pursue their own interests against smaller countries, promote tariff-based trade wars, and spread vaccine skepticism, causing the resurgence of illnesses once thought vanquished, thereby creating conditions which are throwbacks to less safe times. Whatever Trump’s intentions, his policies may well cause America to have a bleaker future than the future we could have with more rational policies.
Prior to the Second World War, much of America’s foreign policy was based on isolationism—not the sort of isolationism leading a country to close itself off to the outside world, but the sort which led the United States to avoid permanent and possibly “entangling” alliances with other nations, Hence during World War One, while the United States sent troops to aid Great Britain and France in war against Germany, the Wilson Administration and General Pershing refused to allow the integration of American troops with foreign troops under a unified command, and the coalition of nations fighting Germany and Austria-Hungary was the Allied and Associated Powers, America being the associate of the allies, but not an ally itself. And of course, the United States Senate under the domination of the Republican Party refused to allow the United States to enter the League of Nations for fear of forming alliances which might cause America to be sucked into future European wars.
Our membership in NATO reflected a post-World War 2 sea change in America’s perception of the value of permanent alliances with other European nations to resist Soviet aggression. And NATO helped keep the peace. Other than the southeastern European conflict following the disintegration of Yugoslavia, there were no European wars until Russia’s attack on Ukraine.
President Trump, like his predecessors in the White House, has been right to criticize our European NATO allies for not shouldering their fair share of the financial burden of supporting NATO, and unlike his predecessors, he has actually succeeded in winning their agreement to pay more for NATO’s upkeep. But in supporting Russia over Ukraine, he is weakening our ties to the other NATO members who uniformly support Ukraine. Whatever his intent, the result will be to return the United States to its pre-World War 2 status of alliances with nobody.
Incidentally, Russia is beginning to use drone strikes in Eastern Europe to probe for weaknesses in our NATO allies. Should Putin escalate the attacks, or otherwise try to bring Eastern Europe back under Russian control as it was before the collapse of the Soviet Union, NATO may have to go to war. What will Trump or his successor in the Oval Office do then?
Trump’s support of Russia at the expense of NATO also reflects an apparent desire to revive Great Power arrangements wherein each of the three greatest powers—the United States, Russia, and China—has its own “sphere of influence” wherein it can pretty much do what it pleases without interference from the other great powers, while respecting the other great powers to likewise pursue their own interests within their own geographical areas as well. Just as Trump is indifferent to the fate of Ukraine, which he sees as within Russia’s sphere, he may prove himself indifferent to the fate of Taiwan and other Asian democracies too.
And Trump would expect the leaders of both Russia and China to give him a free hand to dominate and shape policy within Latin America. For well over a century, the United States has assumed for itself the right to implement the Roosevelt Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine. President Theodore Roosevelt had announced that the United States would intervene in the domestic politics of Latin American countries to change policies which might otherwise provoke European intervention (example: The United States could compel a country to preserve law and order or pay debts to European creditors to forestall European intervention in that country’s internal affairs). Trump is calling his interventionist plans the Donroe Doctrine. A good example of its implementation was the seizure of Venezuelan President Nicholas Maduro earlier this year, along with the appropriation of Venezuelan oil. Another good example would be the overthrow of the Cuban communist regime, should Trump follow through on his threat/promise to do so. But such applications of the Donroe Doctrine may well trigger more anti-Americanism among populace’s resentful of American interference in domestic affairs, more invitations to Russia and China to intervene to counteract American influence, and more demands that the “Yankee go home.” Whether Trump has considered this is unknown.
Trump’s tariff policies have also brought back old problems. Contrary to what Trump used to believe (and may still believe), a tariff is not a tax paid by a foreign nation to export its goods to the United States. Rather, it is a tax paid by American importers who then usually pass it on to American consumers buying what the importer has supplied. The effect is to raise the price on imports, thereby making them less affordable. And foreign nations frequently implement their own retaliatory tariffs on American goods, making it more difficult for American producers and farmers to market their products abroad.
Trump’s tariff wars are a throwback to international trade policies and problems created by American protectionist policies before World War 2. One of the worst mistakes exacerbating the Great Depression was the passage of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff bill signed into law by President Hoover at the Depression’s onset. By erecting barriers to imports, Smoot-Hawley triggered retaliatory tariffs imposed by other countries, and the shrinkage of international trade and commerce helped deepen the Great Depression. The effects of Smoot-Hawley lasted long after Senator Smoot, Congressman Hawley, and President Hoover were voted out of office in 1932. But after World War 2 memories of the impoverishment caused by Smoot-Hawley helped inspire the growth of free trade and greater prosperity among the United States and our trading partners. Unfortunately, President Trump is now reversing the trend towards free trade and greater affordability by returning the United States to the bad old days of higher tariffs and more trade wars.
And then there’s the resurgence of measles. Measles used to be so widespread that to contract measles—or mumps or chicken pox—was almost a rite of passage for boys and girls growing up in the 1950s. But with the advent of vaccines, these childhood scourges were practically eliminated. Or so we thought. Yet President Trump, HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and other MAGA Republicans have vaccine skepticism, based on the lie that vaccines cause autism or are otherwise ineffective, and have they discouraged more Americans from being vaccinated. This has led to a resurgence of measles among children today who could easily have been protected from ever having to suffer from it. And one has to wonder, in this anti-vaccine climate, what other diseases, once vanquished with vaccines, may also make a comeback—Mumps? Chicken pox? Smallpox? Polio? Should we dust off the old iron lungs, just in case?
In essence, then, whatever Trump’s intentions, the results of his policies could lead to a turning back the clock to a time when the United States
- Had no effective alliances to help keep the peace in Europe;
- Provoked rabid anti-Americanism south of the border;
- Provoked impoverishing trade wars with self-defeating tariffs:
- Was ravaged by diseases we can now eliminate, if we want.
Unless these policies are repealed and replaced with policies more rational and humane, our future will be far more bleak than needs be.
Malcolm L. Cross has lived in Stephenville since 1987 and taught politics and government at Tarleton for 36 years, retiring in 2023. His political and civic activities include service on the Stephenville City Council (2000-2014) and on the Erath County Republican Executive Committee (1990-2024). He was Mayor pro-tem of Stephenville from 2008 to 2014. He has served on the Board of Directors of the Stephenville Economic Development Authority since 2018, and as chair of the Erath County Appraisal District’s Appraisal Review Board since 2015. He is also a member of the Stephenville Rotary Club, the Board of Vestry of St. Luke’s Episcopal Church, and the Executive Committee of the Boy Scouts’ Pecan Valley District. Views expressed in this column are his and do not reflect those of The Flash as a whole.
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