Vice President Kamala Harris is almost certain to be the Democratic nominee for President of the United States. But her candidacy will present challenges to both Democrats and Republicans alike, while Donald Trump’s vulnerabilities may reduce Republicans’ effectiveness in dealing with Harris. Given that whoever wins the election is likely to do so by only the slimmest of margins, the winner will be the candidate who can best exploit the other’s vulnerabilities while overcoming his (or her) own vulnerabilities as well.
Harris’s greatest vulnerability is her lack of popularity and respect among the general public. With her frequently inappropriate laughter, her “word salad” gibberish, and her perceived failure as Biden’s designated “Border Czar,” she’s widely seen as a joke. Public opinion polls have consistently given her lower approval ratings than those of President Biden.
And Harris’s current low standing in public opinion polls were foreshadowed by her own electoral history at the national level. Seeking the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination, she gained so little popular support that she had to drop out of the race before winning a single vote or a single delegate in a single primary. Biden selected her to be his vice-presidential running mate not for any achievement on her part but solely because she is a woman of color. Her strength in the party and in the overall election is based solely on the belief among Democrats that to replace her would alienate enough other women of color to throw the election to Trump. Given the lack of support she received from women of color in her 2019 campaign, one must wonder how justified that belief truly is.
And the determination of leading Democrats to anoint her may undermine her strengths (if any) in the fall campaign anyway. The decision of several other potential presidential candidates to not challenge Harris for the presidential nomination practically guarantees her coronation at next month’s Democratic National Convention. What impact, however, this will have on her electoral capabilities remains to be seen. On the one hand, a convention free from discord may be a more effective launch pad for her fall campaign. But will her chances for success in November be undermined by apathy or resentment of Democratic activists disliking the imposition of Harris on the party by less-than-democratic means?
The Democrats may be well advised to encourage an “open convention” in which the winner can be seen to graciously earn the nomination following a contest conducted with rigor but without ranker, and by a show of unity among all the candidates. And if Harris can sharpen her campaign skills in a Democratic “mini-primary” or other contest from which she emerges victorious, she may well improve her effectiveness against the coming Republican onslaught.
And what of the Republicans? Former President Trump is currently enjoying a post-convention (and a post-assassination-attempt) “bounce” in the polls. The latest Wall Street Journal Editorial Report noted he had opened a 5-point lead among all voters, and was also ahead of Biden in all the “battleground” states as well as nationally. But can he maintain that lead against Harris? Possibly—but only if he has the self-discipline to effectively stay on target and exploit the issues on which Harris and the Democrats are most likely to be vulnerable: Inflation, the economy, crime, and (of course) border stability.
And therein lies Trump’s biggest challenge. With his acceptance speech, he had a golden opportunity to present a well-organized and well-reasoned indictment of the Biden-Harris administration’s public policy failures. And he blew it.
The first 15 minutes of his speech were poignant and effective. He spoke movingly of his own brush with death as well as of the courage of his Secret Service bodyguards, the critical wounding of two men in the audience, and, most importantly, of the death of the heroic retired firefighter who gave his life to shield his wife and children from the bullets of the murderer. As New York Times columnist David Brooks noted, had Trump followed his effective tribute to the heroes and the victims, the living and the dead, with about fifteen minutes of sharp attacks on the Biden-Harris record, he could have launched his general election campaign with a truly effective speech. But instead, he chose to revert to form and offer stream of consciousness remarks, frequently emphasizing his personal grievances over the issues on which Harris, as Biden’s designated successor, is especially vulnerable, and undermining the effectiveness of his remarks with their deviations as well as with their length and lack of organization. Trump’s defenders may argue that high public approval ratings did, in fact, follow his remarks, so maybe they were more effective than one might think. But how much more effective could Trump be if he emphasized brevity and organization? Will we ever find out?
In essence, therefore, while each candidate is running against the other, each candidate is also running against himself or herself. Each candidate can be his or her own best friend—or own worst enemy. And thus will the election be decided.
Malcolm L. Cross has lived in Stephenville since 1987 and taught politics and government at Tarleton for 36 years, retiring in 2023. His political and civic activities include service on the Stephenville City Council (2000-2014) and on the Erath County Republican Executive Committee (1990-2024). He was Mayor pro-tem of Stephenville from 2008 to 2014. He has served on the Board of Directors of the Stephenville
Economic Development Authority since 2018 and as chair of the Erath County Appraisal District’s Appraisal Review Board since 2015. He is also a member of the Stephenville Rotary Club, the Board of Vestry of St. Luke’s Episcopal Church, and the Executive Committee of the Boy Scouts’ Pecan Valley District. Views expressed in this column are his and do not reflect those of The Flash as a whole.
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