Public opinion polls are showing Kamala Harris gaining in popularity over Donald Trump, thereby reducing his chances of returning to the White House. But they also show how Trump can regain his lost momentum and they outline a route back to the White House by emphasizing major issues, such as border security and the economy, on which the GOP enjoys advantages over the Democrats. However, to date, Trump is refusing to heed the plain meaning of the polls’ lessons and seems bent on handing the election to Harris. He must change his strategy and tactics to win.
In 2016 a good friend and I developed a tongue-in-cheek theory to explain Trump’s victory over Hillary Clinton: The GOP had planted secret agents—moles, so to speak—in Clinton’s campaign.
- Moles spiked her food and drinks to make her act old, tired, and sick.
- A mole walking behind her would sometimes give her a nudge to make her lose her balance.
- Moles on her campaign staff advised her to denounce Trump’s supporters as “deplorables,” and to not waste time, energy, or money on Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania—after all these states were in the bag for her anyway.
You get the idea: In our running joke, we blamed every mishap and boneheaded strategic and tactical decision not on Clinton’s own frailties or on the stupidity of her advisors but on anonymous operatives who deliberately made things worse for her. And we had a lot of fun doing so.
But Kamala Harris and her advisors could probably have as much fun speculating today on whether Democratic moles are sabotaging Trump’s campaign, given the gross ineptitude he’s showing. Or they might even wonder if Trump himself is a mole, sabotaging his campaign in order to throw the election to Harris. Consider:
A Washington Post public opinion poll summarized on ABC News shows that while voters last July overwhelmingly thought Trump was more physically fit and mentally sharp than Biden, voters now say Harris is far more fit than Trump both physically and mentally. Moreover, the polls also show Harris becoming far more popular than Trump among young voters, as well as among Blacks, Hispanics, and Independents. Should these trends continue, Harris will not only win the presidency, but may help the Democrats retain the Senate and take back the House of Representatives as well.
But these polls show Harris has major vulnerabilities which, if skillfully exploited, could yet produce a Trump victory: Public dissatisfaction with the current state of crime, border security, and, above all, the economy. In each instance, Trump can easily tie Harris to the “failed policies of the Biden-Harris Administration.”
For example, 87% of those polled in a survey discussed on the Wall Street Journal Editorial Report said that border security was either a major or “emergency” issue, and 71% held the Biden-Harris Administration responsible. ABC News and the Washington Post report that the voters, by a 10-point margin, trust Trump more than Harris to better protect the border.
The economy is—or should be—an especially ripe target for Trump to aim at. After all, only 28% of those polled by the Washington Post, as reported on ABC, say it is in “excellent” or “good” shape, while 72% say it is “fair” or “poor.” Normally, with numbers like those, neither an incumbent president running for re-election nor his party’s presidential candidate (if the president is not running) can win. Trump, according to the Editorial Report, is trusted more than Harris on this issue by a 9% margin.
So Trump’s road back to the White House is clear and well-lit: Hit Harris hard on border security and the economy, making her own the issues by holding both her and Biden accountable for what the public perceives to be their policy failures. The problem, however, is that to date, TRUMP WON’T DO SO.
As noted in an earlier column, Trump, in delivering his nomination acceptance speech, squandered his opportunity at the Republican National Convention to give a well-organized, well-thought-out, well prepared, hard-hitting attack on the Biden-Harris policy failures. Rather, after offering a truly thoughtful and poignant tribute to the heroic firefighter murdered in the assassination attempt, he chose to deliver one of his typical extended stream-of-consciousness rants on all the grievances—admittedly legitimate in some cases—he’s accumulated over the years. And he’s continued this pattern, albeit adding personal insults about Harris’s race, intelligence, character, etc., as well.
Why he does so is not clear, at least not to me. I suspect he maintains this approach because it worked well against the unpopular Hillary Clinton in 2016, his MAGA audiences and followers love his style, and he likes discussing his grievances before sympathetic audiences.
But if Trump is to win he must realize first of all that he ALREADY HAS the MAGA vote, but the MAGA vote is not enough. He must go after non-MAGA Republicans and right-leaning Independents to win enough votes to prevail over Harris. And the best way to do so is not to keep attacking Harris personally or to continue to complain about the 2020 election. It’s to discuss today’s issues, emphasizing what the Biden-Harris Administration did wrong and what a Republican Administration will do right. And do prevent the election from slipping away, he must do so NOW.
In case you’re wondering, I don’t think Democratic moles have penetrated the Trump campaign. Nor do I think Trump himself is actually a mole secretly working for the Democrats. But by emphasizing unfair personal attacks on Harris over legitimate attacks on the Biden-Harris record, he’s doing as much damage to his election chances as if Democratic moles had actually taken over. Unless he changes course, there’ll be at least one upcoming event he’ll never attend—the inauguration of President Harris next January.
Malcolm L. Cross has lived in Stephenville since 1987 and taught politics and government at Tarleton for 36 years, retiring in 2023. His political and civic activities include service on the Stephenville City Council (2000-2014) and on the Erath County Republican Executive Committee (1990-2024). He was Mayor pro-tem of Stephenville from 2008 to 2014. He has served on the Board of Directors of the Stephenville
Economic Development Authority since 2018 and as chair of the Erath County Appraisal District’s Appraisal Review Board since 2015. He is also a member of the Stephenville Rotary Club, the Board of Vestry of St. Luke’s Episcopal Church, and the Executive Committee of the Boy Scouts’ Pecan Valley District. Views expressed in this column are his and do not reflect those of The Flash as a whole.
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