In the waning weeks of his administration, President Biden is rightly supplying Ukraine with more long-range missiles along with the authority to use them to hit targets deep within Russian territory. But are his new policies, welcomed as they should be by all supporters of Ukrainian independence, too little and too late? And will they be reversed by the incoming Trump-Vance administration which, to date, has shown a lamentable lack of either interest in or support for Ukraine? If so, geopolitical catastrophe may result.
Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, the United States and its NATO allies have been supplying Ukraine with weapons with which to defend itself—and for good reason. Russian President Vladimir Putin has said the collapse of the Soviet Union was a “genuine tragedy” and “was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century.” At times he has justified his war against Ukraine as the means by which a culturally conservative Holy Russia (with the support of the Russian Orthodox Church) is attempting to resist the growing secularism of an amoral and godless West. At other times he has said that Ukraine was the seat of a resurgent Nazism (Ukrainian President Zelensky is a secular Jew) threatening Russia and having to be destroyed. But his actions are consistent with a drive to reconstitute the old Soviet Union by reestablishing control over the territory once part of, or at least subject to domination by, the Evil Empire.
If this is true, then Putin won’t stop with Ukraine. Other parts of the Soviet Union, such as Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia, may next be subject to attempts at reconquest. So too may be Poland, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia. All these independent nations, once considered parts of the Soviet Block and ruled by communist dictators propped up by the Soviet Union’s Red Army, have sought NATO protection, which could include armed intervention by the United States and our NATO allies should any member state be the target of Russian aggression.
Herein lies the wisdom of Biden’s Ukrainian policy: By supplying weapons systems to Ukraine, he’s enabled the Ukrainians to more effectively defend themselves against Russian aggression and thereby reduce the chances that the United States and Western Europe will be dragged into a war to which they might have to contribute their own ground troops as well. So in a very real sense, Ukraine is fighting not only for its own independence but to keep American and allied forces out of war. Their battles are ours as well.
But the major flaw in Biden’s policy to date has been that he’s authorized just enough arms, and just enough leeway to use those arms, to prevent Ukraine from losing (so far), but not enough to help Ukraine actually win by reclaiming its territory now occupied by Russian troops. Sending more weapons systems—especially long-range missiles as well as landmines—is certainly welcome, but is probably not enough to enable Ukraine to win the war before time expires. At best, Biden’s new policies may enable Ukraine to inflict more losses on Russia (and its ally North Korea) and possibly win better terms in a temporary “peace” settlement.
Unfortunately, time may well expire on January 20, 2025, when the Trump-Vance administration takes over. Trump has quite rightly demanded that other NATO members financially contribute to the common defense. But beyond that, he’s not yet shown any significant understanding of NATO’s value in preserving the post-World War 2 peace in Western Europe, any appreciation for NATO’s deterrent value against a resurgent Russia, or any indication that the United States under his leadership would rally our NATO allies to resist future Russian aggression. Vice President-elect J. D. Vance has openly stated he cares little for Ukraine’s future or for the outcome of the current war. Trump has said he’ll end the war in “24 hours.” But how? Will he throw Ukraine under the proverbial bus? And should a Russian victory whet Putin’s appetite for more aggression against our Eastern European NATO allies, will he renege on our NATO commitments? Or will we, in accordance with our NATO treaty commitments, have to defend our allies with combat troops in a war that could have been avoided with a Ukrainian victory fueled by more American aid in the first place?
And the consequences of a Ukrainian defeat produced in part by a lack of American aid may well have consequences beyond war or peace in Europe. Islamofascist terrorists and states may escalate their attacks to destroy Israel if they perceive American unwillingness to stand by its allies. And Communist China may likewise be encouraged to ramp up its efforts to conquer and subjugate democratic Taiwan in the belief that the United States no longer has the will to defend it, as well as to continue to expand its power and influence into the South China Sea, Latin America, and Africa. North Korea, too, may be emboldened to take more aggressive actions against South Korea and elsewhere.
The Biden Administration may well deserve credit for helping Ukraine hold on for as long as it has, but that may mean little if Ukraine ultimately suffers the sort of defeat which will encourage further aggression from Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea. And the Trump administration may discover that no amount of effort to betray Ukraine and isolate itself from the ensuing consequences will shield the United States from having to deal with worse consequences later. However much one seeks to avoid reality, reality will always have its own way.
Malcolm L. Cross has lived in Stephenville since 1987 and taught politics and government at Tarleton for 36 years, retiring in 2023. His political and civic activities include service on the Stephenville City Council (2000-2014) and on the Erath County Republican Executive Committee (1990-2024). He was Mayor pro-tem of Stephenville from 2008 to 2014. He has served on the Board of Directors of the Stephenville
Economic Development Authority since 2018 and as chair of the Erath County Appraisal District’s Appraisal Review Board since 2015. He is also a member of the Stephenville Rotary Club, the Board of Vestry of St. Luke’s Episcopal Church, and the Executive Committee of the Boy Scouts’ Pecan Valley District. Views expressed in this column are his and do not reflect those of The Flash as a whole.
Be the first to comment