President Trump’s tariff policies may produce big losses for the Republican Party in Congress in the 2026 midterm elections. But missteps by the Democrats may make those losses less bad.
Normally, the party that controls the White House loses seats in the U. S. Senate and House of Representatives in the midterm elections—especially if the public doesn’t like the economic trends at the time of the election. Fairly or not, the party which holds the White House always gets credit for good economic times, and blame for what the public sees as poor times.
And President Trump’s tariff policies may damage the economy, for which the Republicans’ candidates for senator and representative may be punished at the polls. Trump’s critics are forecasting a contraction in international trade, along with more inflation, unemployment, and a looming recession. After all, the last time the GOP pursued a protectionist economic agenda—with the passage of the Smoot-Hawley tariff bill passed by a Republican congress and signed into law by Republican President Herbert Hoover in 1930—the results were both economically disastrous for the country and politically devastating for the GOP. International trade dropped, unemployment soared, and the Great Depression deepened. The GOP lost the next five consecutive presidential elections—the first time a political party had a five-election losing streak since the Federalists lost the presidential elections of 1800 through 1816. The Democrats controlled the Senate for 52 of the next 64 years, and the House of Representatives for 60 of the next 64 years.
But it’s possible that President Trump can make things for the GOP less bad. He has expressed a determination to negotiate the reduction of the newly-erected trade barriers with at least 15 of the 75 national governments which have requested that his new tariff policy be reconsidered. The more agreements Trump can make for the lowering of tariffs, the less damage will be done to the national economy, and hence the less damage that may be done by angry voters to the GOP next year.
And the Democrats may begin to unknowingly help the Republicans out. They’re making, or are on the verge of making, two missteps that can only help the GOP at their expense.
First, the Democrats are allowing Senator Bernie Sanders and Representative AOC to emerge as the Democrats’ two most popular figures today. Sanders and AOC have been winning and wowing large crowds with their “anti-oligarchy” tour. The problem for the Democrats is that the rising popularity of Sanders and AOC may move the Democratic Party to the left and inspire its activists to nominate more progressive or “Democratic Socialistic” candidates for Congress in 2026 and for both Congress and the White House in 2028.
But while progressive Democrats may enthusiastically support such candidates and help them win primaries, such candidates are less likely to win votes in general elections. Those who vote in general elections are more likely to support right-of-center or left-of-center candidates than those who are identified as being ultra-liberal, or excessively progressive, or too conservative. The more extreme a Democrat running for office seems to be, the more votes a moderate conservative is likely to win. Democratic leaders and financiers, if they want to maximize their gains in the elections of 2026 and beyond, should support the nomination of moderately left-of-center candidates for office rather than progressive firebrands who can only win when there are few if any Republicans around.
The second misstep is the appointment by the Democratic National Committee of David Hogg to be one of its vice chairs. David Hogg is an anti-gun activist who survived the 2018 mass shooting at the Marjorie Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Florida. He wants to raise 20 million dollars to finance campaigns–against Democrats! He believes that older Democratic incumbents should be defeated for renomination and replaced by younger Democratic candidates instead.
His critics charge that the main function of the Democratic National Committee should be to help Democrats defeat Republicans, not other Democrats, and that every dollar raised and spent by Democrats to defeat other Democrats is one dollar less that can be used to defeat Republicans. Besides, Hogg’s initiative may weaken the Democrats by promoting more fights among Democrats. And in congressional elections, normally the incumbent, whether a Democrat or Republican, normally wins a general election. But if Hogg has his way, too many incumbents who would probably win their general elections may be premaried and replaced by challengers with less chance of victory.
So if Republicans want to minimize their losses in 2026, they should support whatever efforts are made to reduce rather than erect trade barriers. They can thereby reduce the chances that what happened to the GOP following Smoot-Hawley will not be repeated. But the Republicans can also take time out from their efforts at self-preservation to enjoy the spectacle of the Democrats shooting themselves in both feet, courtesy of Bernie Sanders, AOC, and especially David Hogg. It should be fascinating.
Malcolm L. Cross has lived in Stephenville since 1987 and taught politics and government at Tarleton for 36 years, retiring in 2023. His political and civic activities include service on the Stephenville City Council (2000-2014) and on the Erath County Republican Executive Committee (1990-2024). He was Mayor pro-tem of Stephenville from 2008 to 2014. He has served on the Board of Directors of the Stephenville
Economic Development Authority since 2018 and as chair of the Erath County Appraisal District’s Appraisal Review Board since 2015. He is also a member of the Stephenville Rotary Club, the Board of Vestry of St. Luke’s Episcopal Church, and the Executive Committee of the Boy Scouts’ Pecan Valley District. Views expressed in this column are his and do not reflect those of The Flash as a whole.
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