Former President Donald Trump has now been indicted 4 times for a total of 91 federal and state allegations of criminal conduct. So what are the political implications of the indictments? Three stand out:
First, the indictments have solidified Trump’s hold on the Republican Party and made him the odds-on favorite to win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination. The latest polling by Fox News, as reported by the Wall Street Journal, says Trump has the support of 53% of likely Republican primary voters. His two closest rivals, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, trail Trump by 37% and 42% respectively. All other contenders for the GOP presidential nomination register support in the single digits.
Trump’s popularity within the GOP has only grown as the indictments have piled up. His core supporters—Christian conservatives and white men without college degrees—see him as the only presidential candidate willing to stand up for them against the Democratic and Republican elites. The indictments serve only as proof of the elites’ determination to destroy Trump. And the harder the elites try, the more determined Trump’s supporters are to stand by him and put him back in the White House.
Second, the indictments increase President Biden’s re-election chances, especially if one or more of the indictments produces an actual conviction. Trump must be accorded all the benefits of due process and the presumption of innocence unless guilt is proven. And whether or not he will actually be convicted of anything remains to be seen. Some of the charges—especially those brought by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg—are widely considered to be too flimsy to sustain convictions. And Trump may be able to successfully argue that the activities for which Federal prosecutor Jack Smith and Fulton County, Georgia, District Attorney Fani Willis successfully sought indictments were simply legitimate means of challenging election results. But should local or federal prosecutors secure convictions for at least a few of the 91 charges in their indictments of Trump, his support may dramatically weaken in the general election. Enough potential supporters in the GOP or among independents may decide to vote for Biden after all, and in a close election that might well give Biden a second term.
And third, no matter who wins the presidency in 2024, more indictments of the next president and his executive branch subordinates are likely to follow. Just as impeachments will beget more impeachments as Republicans seek revenge for the impeachments of President Trump and Democrats likewise continue to use impeachments as well, so, too, will indictments beget more indictments. The current indictments set precedents which future presidents and prosecutors in both parties are likely to follow. Especially imperiled will be Democratic presidents. Should President Biden be re-elected, Republicans will be more eager than ever to indict Biden, his son, Hunter, and other assorted members of what they’re beginning to call the “Biden Crime Family” for various crimes by which the Bidens have allegedly enriched themselves. Moreover, as the Wall Street Journal has reported, there are hundreds of Republican district attorneys in red states, especially on our border with Mexico, who may want to follow the examples of local prosecutors Bragg and Willis and seek to indict Biden and members of his administration for a variety of offenses, especially for alleged dereliction of duty in dealing with the enforcement of our immigration laws.
None of this is to say that Trump, or the Bidens, or anyone else should escape indictments by virtue of their respective positions. If the law mandates indictments and convictions, so be it. Nobody is above (or beneath) the law. But whether one supports or opposes the indictments against Trump, one must be prepared for the years of chaos and acrimony which may well follow, no matter how the current cases against Trump are ultimately resolved.
Malcolm L. Cross has lived in Stephenville and taught politics and government at Tarleton from 1987 until 2023. His political and civic activities include service on the Stephenville City Council (2000-2014) and on the Erath County Republican Executive Committee (1990 to the present). He was Mayor Pro Tem of Stephenville from 2008 to 2014. He is a member of St. Luke’s Episcopal Church and the Stephenville Rotary Club and does volunteer work for the Boy Scouts of America. Views expressed in this column are his and do not reflect those of The Flash as a whole.
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