It’s too early to draw any definitive or even especially profound conclusions about the shooting of former President Trump. But it’s not too early to offer a few thoughts about the outcome of the investigation of the shooting, as well as about the impact of the shooting on the ongoing presidential campaign.
First, while we know WHO shot Trump—and in the process also murdered another man and critically wounded two other rally attendees—we don’t know WHY. And we may never know. The shooter, even before he was killed by a Secret Service sniper, was practically a ghost. A 20-year-old registered Republican who had made a few contributions to liberal causes and with only a minor presence on social media platforms, he’s left few known clues about his motives. Perhaps, as numerous investigations proceed, we’ll learn more. But then again, we still don’t yet know why Lee Harvey Oswald murdered President Kennedy (assuming Oswald was, in fact, the culprit, a conclusion still debated in some quarters).
Second, we’re beginning to hear calls for cooling our political rhetoric, as if the shooter were somehow inflamed by the verbal bombshells Trump, President Biden, and their respective allies have been throwing at each other over the years. Not knowing yet what motivated the shooter in the first place, nobody can say whether toning down the oratory would have done any good. Personally, I’m always skeptical of the motives of those who make such pleas, or pleas for “unity,” or whatever. Who’s rhetoric do they want to suppress? Under which principles is “unity” to be achieved? And what of the rights of those who may want to continue to advance discouraged principles or dissent from whatever principles are underlying “unity?” However, those who have worked especially hard to try to convince us that Trump’s putative return to the White House will usher in a new era of Nazi totalitarianism may want to do some soul searching. Trump is no more Hitler than Biden is Stalin—a point to which future columns may be devoted.
Third, over the short run, at least, Trump will benefit from the shooting, however horrific it may have been (let’s not forget the murder victim and the two critically wounded ones as well). Having survived the attempt, he will now, in the minds of his supporters at least, join assassination survivors Theodore Roosevelt and Ronald Reagan as true American heroes. Photographs of Trump, bloodied but unbowed and defiantly holding aloft his clenched fist, will no doubt replace his mugshot in TV ads and on coffee mugs, t-shirts, and other paraphernalia. It’s difficult to think of any image better designed to reinforce his overall campaign narrative that the Establishment is out to get him because he’s the only person in America with the strength to fight the Establishment’s attempts to dominate us.
Fourth, while Trump will benefit, at least in the short run, President Biden may benefit as well, and not simply because he and Vice President Harris are so far saying and doing all the right things in response to this horror. At the end of the week Trump will leave the Republican National Convention not only with the presidential nomination in hand, but with a party united in its determination to avenge the shooting, defeat those who call Trump a Fascist and a criminal, and return Trump to the White House to vindicate both his supporters and himself. On the other hand, growing demands that Biden “step aside” from his quest for a second term, as well as Biden’s refusal, to date, to do so, seriously threaten the Democratic unity needed by whomever the Democrats nominate to win the election against a highly motivated GOP. But the media are reporting that in light of the shooting, calls for Biden’s withdrawal are at least “on pause.” Confronting a united GOP, Biden and his allies may be able to argue that retaining him on the ticket will at least weaken the Democrats less than his replacement with his hapless Vice-President or with the winner of a free-for-all floor fight that could weaken the Democratic Party even more.
Finally, while one may hope that the worst is over and that the remainder of the campaign will go more smoothly, it would be idiotic to be too complacent. If there are any lessons to be drawn so far from this campaign, they’re that anything can happen, and that there’s no limit on how horrific its results may be (death, or critical injury, for example). The next disaster may be just around the corner. Exactly what it will be and when it will befall us remain to be seen. But we’ll find out soon enough.
Malcolm L. Cross has lived in Stephenville since 1987 and taught politics and government at Tarleton for 36 years, retiring in 2023. His political and civic activities include service on the Stephenville City Council (2000-2014) and on the Erath County Republican Executive Committee (1990-2024). He was Mayor pro-tem of Stephenville from 2008 to 2014. He has served on the Board of Directors of the Stephenville
Economic Development Authority since 2018 and as chair of the Erath County Appraisal District’s Appraisal Review Board since 2015. He is also a member of the Stephenville Rotary Club, the Board of Vestry of St. Luke’s Episcopal Church, and the Executive Committee of the Boy Scouts’ Pecan Valley District. Views expressed in this column are his and do not reflect those of The Flash as a whole.
I think, at the Republican convention, everybody attending should be allowed to carry a gun with them to protect themselves and others. That would also take care of our Republican problem.