The Cruz-Allred race for the U. S. Senate is one of the closest, and therefore one of the most important, senate contests in the country. Each candidate is trying to link the other to an unpopular stance on lifestyle issues. But the race is about more than particular issues. On the outcome of the election may hang party control of the Senate and hence the Senate’s determination to either advance or block the appointments and the legislative program of the next President of the United States.
The Cruz-Allred race is abnormally close. Ted Cruz, as the incumbent Republican senator in a state almost certain to be carried by Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump is, according to the latest public opinion polling, do far worse than one would expect.
Most incumbent state and federal lawmakers seeking re-election get it. Frequently the re-election rate exceeds 90%. Incumbent lawmakers are usually better known than their challengers. They’ve had time to develop legislative programs popular with their constituents, to win free media coverage, and to use governmental or campaign funds to generate even more favorable publicity for themselves. And because incumbents normally win re-election anyway, campaign contributors who want to be on the “winning side” will give them more money to finance their re-election efforts. Indeed, the more campaign funds an incumbent gets, the more likely he is to win re-election, and the more likely he is to win re-election, the more money he gets. Some of the biggest campaign treasuries are accumulated by incumbents running unopposed—with the size of their campaign war chests, they scare off challengers, and since their re-election victories are guaranteed, they get to rake in even more money from those who want to curry favor with them.
But the most recent poll discussed on Lone Star Politics, the weekly TV show on ABC’s Dallas affiliate, shows him leading Colin Allred only 48% to Allred’s 47%. More ominously, the poll shows that over the last month, Cruz has lost 1 point in support while Allred’s gained 2 points. If these trends continue, Allred will have an excellent chance of doing what no Texas Democrat has done since 1994—win a statewide election and thereby replace Cruz in the U. S. Senate.
So what gives? How can an incumbent Republican Senator be in such political trouble in a red state where polling indicates Trump is ahead of Harris 53%-46%?
Part of the reason may be that enough voters find Allred’s personal laid-back, low-key style to be more attractive than Cruz’s intensity. But the main reason may be Allred and pro-choice interest groups allied with him are successfully (if not altogether accurately) portraying Cruz as a pro-life zealot—a position deeply unpopular with the American public.
Polls consistently show that between two-thirds and three-fourths of the American people oppose any restrictions on abortion during the first trimester of pregnancy, when more than 90% of all abortions take place. But Texas law bans almost all abortions other than those necessary to save the mother’s life, and doctors are reported to be reluctant to intervene even then, or when pregnancies threaten the health but not the life of pregnant women. Pro-Allred TV commercials are denouncing the “Ted Cruz Abortion Ban” while promising that if elected to the Senate, Allred will “lift” the ban. Of course, Cruz has no power to impose any sort of ban on abortions in Texas, and Allred has no power to lift such a ban. Nonetheless, the closeness of the race indicates the effectiveness with which the Allred campaign is linking Cruz to abortion extremists, as well as Cruz’s ineffectiveness (and perhaps unwillingness?) to offer a more humane and rational pro-life policy with more exceptions to abortion prohibitions.
But Cruz, in turn, may achieve some success in attempting to link Allred to unpopular policies which would allow boys to declare themselves girls and thereby participate in girls’ sports (Allred says that as a Christian and a father he opposes such nonsense). And Cruz may well benefit from Trump’s almost inevitable carrying of Texas next month. Yet his election remains in doubt–as does the fate of the United States Senate as well.
The Senate is organized by party. Whichever party has a majority of seats in the Senate, no matter how small that majority may be, gets to choose the President Pro Tem (whose part of the presidential succession line, after the Vice President and the Speaker of the House of Representatives), and Senate Majority Leader. Moreover, the majority party gets all legislative committee and subcommittee chairmanships, and majorities on all committees and subcommittees (other than the Ethics Committee, on which each party has half the seats). In sum, the majority party and its leadership gets to determine if, when, and what presidential nominations and legislative proposals will be considered, and what will be rejected or ignored.
Today’s Senate includes 47 Democrats and 4 independents who vote with the Democrats, and 49 Republicans. So the Democrats run the Senate with all that means for public policy.
But the flipping of only a few seats from one party to the other could either strengthen the Democrats’ hold over the Senate or wrest control of the Senate from the Democrats to the Republicans. And herein lies the true significance of the Cruz-Allred battle in Texas. Their race is not just about abortion or the rights of boys to become female athletes. Most importantly, it’s about control of the Senate, and therefore control of the fate of the policies of the next President of the United States, whoever he or she should be.
Malcolm L. Cross has lived in Stephenville since 1987 and taught politics and government at Tarleton for 36 years, retiring in 2023. His political and civic activities include service on the Stephenville City Council (2000-2014) and on the Erath County Republican Executive Committee (1990-2024). He was Mayor pro-tem of Stephenville from 2008 to 2014. He has served on the Board of Directors of the Stephenville
Economic Development Authority since 2018 and as chair of the Erath County Appraisal District’s Appraisal Review Board since 2015. He is also a member of the Stephenville Rotary Club, the Board of Vestry of St. Luke’s Episcopal Church, and the Executive Committee of the Boy Scouts’ Pecan Valley District. Views expressed in this column are his and do not reflect those of The Flash as a whole.
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