Current polling in the Cornyn-Paxton race for the Republican senatorial nomination shows Paxton ahead of Cornyn by double digits. But the very factors making Paxton such a strong primary contender may make him less likely to defeat the Democratic nominee in the general election. Republicans should consider this when they go to the polls next March to nominate their candidate for senator.
Ordinarily, John Cornyn could expect an easy primary victory to be followed by an easy re-election to a fifth term in the United States Senate. After all, with the sole exception of his second-place finish in the 1998 Republican primary for Attorney General, he has never lost either a primary or general election race. And in 1998, he went on to win the Republican runoff and then the general election for Attorney General anyway.
But Attorney General Ken Paxton’s decision to challenge John Cornyn for the GOP senate nomination in next March’s primary is threatening to bring Cornyn’s senate career to an end. Public opinion polls currently give Paxton a lead of 15 to 20 points among the Republican voters who’ll choose their senate candidate.
Throughout President Trump’s first term, as well as since his return to the White House, Cornyn has been a loyal supporter of the president. But he’s nonetheless also made what many Texas Republicans consider to be missteps.
For example. Following the Sutherland Springs, Texas, shooting, wherein a gunman murdered 26 church attendees, Cornyn supported background checks for would-be gun purchasers. And in 2022, following the slaughter of 19 children and 2 teachers attempting to protect them in Uvalde, Cornyn emerged as the leader of a bipartisan group of senators developing new gun control legislation. Whatever the merits of his actions, they earned him boos at the state Republican convention as well as the label of RINO: Republican In Name Only.
Moreover, I. 2023, Cornyn suggested that Donald Trump’s time had passed and that new GOP leadership was needed. Needless to say, Trump and his supporters, whether in Texas or throughout the nation, had different ideas.
On the other hand, Texas’s GOP activists love Paxton at least in part for his unwavering support for Trump. In 2020, for example, he led an attempt by Republican congressmen and state Attorneys General with a lawsuit filed in federal court questioning the validity of the presidential election outcome in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Georgia, all of which had given their electoral votes to Joe Biden. The fact that the suit failed did not prevent Paxton from becoming one of the brightest stars in the MAGAverse.
Cornyn has said he does not fear a Paxton challenge and that he’ll ultimately win by exposing Paxton’s “character—or lack of character.” But Paxton’s adultery, impeachment, indictments, civil cases, etc., etc. may actually strengthen his popularity among GOP activists, just as the impeachments, indictments, convictions, and civil suits brought against Trump made him more popular and helped him win back the White House. So Cornyn’s planned attacks on Paxton may better help Paxton identify with Trump and thereby win the nomination after all.
But not necessarily the general election. Polls currently show Paxton slightly behind a generic hypothetical Democratic challenger. To the Democrats, independents, and many non-MAGA Republicans who’ll vote in the general election, Paxton and his record may have significantly less appeal than it has to the MAGA Republicans who’ll dominate the GOP primary.
And this can be a problem not only in Texas but in other states as well: Republican primary voters nominate a candidate whose appeal is deep but narrow, instead of a candidate who might have broader appeal not only to Republicans but to other voters in the general election. In the last 15 years, the GOP has lost at least 4, and probably more, winnable Senate races after its primary voters rejected moderately conservative candidates with at least some minimal bipartisan appeal in favor of more conservative—and in some instances extreme—candidates with far less appeal to general election voters.
So this is the dilemma facing Republican primary voters: Do they select Ken Paxton over John Cornyn, even if Cornyn has the better chance of winning the general election? If they’re not careful, then come November 2026, we may be witnessing the election of Colin Allred or Beto O’Rourke.
Malcolm L. Cross has lived in Stephenville since 1987 and taught politics and government at Tarleton for 36 years, retiring in 2023. His political and civic activities include service on the Stephenville City Council (2000-2014) and on the Erath County Republican Executive Committee (1990-2024). He was Mayor pro-tem of Stephenville from 2008 to 2014. He has served on the Board of Directors of the Stephenville
Economic Development Authority since 2018 and as chair of the Erath County Appraisal District’s Appraisal Review Board since 2015. He is also a member of the Stephenville Rotary Club, the Board of Vestry of St. Luke’s Episcopal Church, and the Executive Committee of the Boy Scouts’ Pecan Valley District. Views expressed in this column are his and do not reflect those of The Flash as a whole.
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