At long last the parties will begin the actual process of selecting delegates to their presidential nominating conventions this summer. The renomination of Joe Biden by the Democrats is a foregone conclusion, and the renomination of Donald Trump by the Republicans may well be as well. But before Republicans actually choose Mr. Trump as their nominee, they should consider the possibility that he may be convicted of one or more felonies before the general election this fall. A conviction may well reduce Republican chances of reclaiming the White House.
Of the various reasons why the majority of Republicans want to renominate Mr. Trump, two seem to stand out:
First, Republicans hope to see a return of the results of Mr. Trump’s first term policies: Lower taxes, less illegal immigration, lower gas prices, less inflation, superb judicial appointments (especially to the Supreme Court), etc.
Moreover (and perhaps more importantly), working-class voters and Christian conservatives see Mr. Trump as standing up for their interests, even as they shrink as a percentage of the overall electorate and become (they think, not altogether without reason), the objects of contempt and derision for the Democrats—remember Hillary Clinton’s comments about “deplorables”– as well as of the “country club” Republicans such as Mitt Romney. As noted in other columns, Mr. Trump has stoked the narrative that he’s the only major national leader preventing their wholesale oppression and exploitation by the political elites of both parties. He’s cited his impeachments and indictments as examples of how the elites are trying to destroy him to better get at his followers.
To date, Mr. Trump has been brilliantly successful in inspiring his followers to see things his way and ignore the merits of the cases against him. Consequently, each new legal charge thrown his way, whether in the form of an impeachment, or an indictment, or an accusation that he’s an “insurrectionist” who should be barred from further elections, serves but to feed his narrative and produce his otherwise gravity-defying poll numbers. Any other target of such charges might well have been destroyed—but not Donald Trump.
But with the approach of the caucuses, primaries, and national conventions also comes Mr. Trump’s various criminal trials as well. He, as well as any other defendant in a criminal case, deserves the presumption of innocence unless proven guilty, with the burden of proof resting squarely on the prosecution. But while conviction on one or more of the 91 charges brought against Mr. Trump is by no means certain, the possibility of conviction cannot be ruled out either. And it takes only one conviction on one charge to send our political system into new and uncharted territory.
Of course, by now we should be used to Mr. Trump’s talent for leading us into new territory. No other presidential candidate has racked up the record of impeachments and indictments that he has.
And it may prove to be the case that not even an actual conviction will fail to do damage to Mr. Trump’s quest for a return to the White House. Nothing else has.
But an actual conviction and not mere accusations—which are what impeachments, indictments, and insurrection accusations are–could be seen as a line that should not have been crossed. Even if most of Mr. Trump’s supporters continue to back him, a few may finally say, “enough.” Given the way the way the general election will probably shape up this fall, it may take only a small number of voters, concerned about the prospect of a convicted felon in the White House, to throw the election to Mr. Biden.
It is almost certain that this election, like those of 2016 and 2020, will not be decided on the basis of any nationwide vote count. The popular vote for president is constitutionally meaningless. Hillary Clinton won 3 million more popular votes than Donald Trump, to no avail. Mr. Biden won an absolute majority of the popular vote and 7 million more votes than Mr. Trump, but the shift of 45,000 votes (out of a total of 155 million votes overall) from Mr. Biden to Mr. Trump in a few key states—Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania—would have kept Mr. Trump in the White House anyway. It is almost certain that this fall, as in 2016 and 2020, regardless of the overall popular vote, the presidency will go to whomever wins the popular vote—and hence the electoral vote—in a small handful of states where Republicans and Democrats are almost evenly balanced.
And this is where the danger lies for Mr. Trump. It’s possible that enough voters in key swing states will be repelled by the prospect of a convicted felon in the White House and thus will withhold their support for Mr. Trump. The number of such voters need not be large. After all, the outcome of the 2000 Bush-Gore election was decided in one state—Florida– by less than 500 votes hundred votes out of almost 6 million votes cast statewide, and more than 100 million votes cast nationwide. By the same token, a swing of a few thousand, or even a few hundred votes against Mr. Trump in purple states could conceivably give Mr. Biden a second term in the White House.
So Mr. Trump’s supporters should be very careful as they push him for renomination. This summer he may well be renominated and convicted of something as well. And if his conviction repels enough voters in enough swing states, Mr. Trump’s luck may well run out. That possibility may not be a foregone conclusion, but it should be serious enough to give Republicans in general and Trump voters in particular as they go to their caucuses and primaries. After all, they certainly don’t want to give the election to Mr. Biden.
Malcolm L. Cross has lived in Stephenville and taught politics and government at Tarleton since 1987. His political and civic activities include service on the Stephenville City Council (2000-2014) and on the Erath County Republican Executive Committee (1990 to the present). He was Mayor Pro Tem of Stephenville from 2008 to 2014. He is a member of St. Luke’s Episcopal Church and the Stephenville Rotary Club and does volunteer work for the Boy Scouts of America. Views expressed in this column are his and do not reflect those of The Flash as a whole.
Here’s a suggestion Nikki Haley!!